Its that time again
We all know that this year is a general election. The referendum on what kind of electoral system is a sideshow but none the less, take the time to think about the issue, but the main issue will be the government going into the next three years.
One issue that I will say with some certainty is that Labour, either sadly or fortunately is toast. There is no way outside of a snowball they will actually win this year. Part of that has to do with their front man. But it's only part. The rest is some of their assortment of shadow ministers. Some of them are quality, others are past their use by dates. But in all they do not add up to a winning combination and a government making party.
That's not to say that some of the decisions made by National haven't shaken my confidence. I think though that they have made some inroads into ideas that I think are reasonable, while others I think have been rushed and truly stank of a bully-boy tactic reminiscent of the 'I'm the boss of the sandpit' attitude.
What I will say outright is that like it or not, it is my belief that National will lead another group of parties into government this election. How I wish their plans did not include ACT as they seem to, but it is going to a second term for John Key and a National lead government. Failing some massive change in fortune for Phil Goff and Labour, and I would even suggest that a leadership change won't help that situation, Labour will not be winning this year's election and they will have a new leader.
ACT
Failing someone wins an electorate ACT is toast and good riddance to them. Don Brash has demonstrated to me many times he lacks any integrity or loyalty to those who support him especially with the unceremonious dumping of their latest list MP Hillary Calvert who supported him in rolling our friendly garden gnome Rodney Hide from the leadership, Mr Brash and the ACT party dumped her off the list. Now John Boscowen is leaving too. So not the show of support Mr Brash thought he was going to get.
Some of ACT's policies aren't overall too bad. Some quite extreme as are many of their views, but some of their policies, like the three strikes aren't too bad. Personally, I hope John Banks is thumped in Epson, I don't care by whom, but I just hope they lose Epson and they will lose all seats in parliament and there is one less idiot to contend with.
ACT though is now in the small party vote grab mode by its new leader and it seems it dosen't care who the votes come from. In relation to its standing on decriminalisation of marijuana I have to say that I am partial to a very controlled policy on medicinal use but I am severely opposed to an open legalisation of the substance, especially since we already have a significant problem with alcohol and other drugs which at this point are no where near a level of safe control.
Goodbye and goodnight.
Greens
The Greens will retain their seats in parliament through the list. Russell Norman and Metiria Turei will lead them but their own contributions to the effort won't overly result in a lot. They will continue to ask the same irrelevant questions and expecting the same unobtainable things that joe-average New Zealanders cannot afford.
It's hard enough at times buying a normally farmed chicken for $14.00 than buying an organically farmed one for $5+ or more. Getting a dozen battery eggs for $6 as opposed to 6 organic or non-cage eggs for the same price or more or cleaner air or water projects for millions of dollars that we would have to pay for out of our own pockets. These guys are safe and sound for what they are worth.
With their changes in the recent polls they will increase their number but the loss of the old guard of Keith Locke and Sue Kedgley does signal now that they are moving in a different direction. Lets see how they go.
The Maori Party.
They I think are pretty safe where they are. There may be a fight on in Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga but for the most part Turia, Sharpels and Flavell will be safe.
In this instance I think they have done ok. I turned my head sideways when suggestions like compulsory Maori language learning for school teachers and some other policy ideas came up but being new to the political power scene they have performed well. I'm not saying that because my aunty is Rahui Katene or that I like Mr Flavell, but I think overall, they have done well and will continue to work well with National.
As much as GST removal from fruit and veg might help joe-average Kiwi, I don't think its enough and I think opens a wider can of worms than most people realise and not just how its administered.
Mana.
A one man wonder and with any luck it will stay that way. I have moments when I like Hone and other times when I cannot stand him. He will likely retain Te Tai Tokerau and depending on his level of support may get one or two more seats but it will not impact on the political landscape in the house.
Solo Flyers
They aren't going to change. United Future and Progressives aren't going to be joined by additional MP's and they will continue to do what they do. Jim Anderton will be a Labour co-pilot and Peter Dunne and his hair-do will do what it does...fly in the wind.
Labour.
Probably on the surest path to destruction as was the Bill English lead National party in the 2002 election. Phil Goff is an uncharismatic leader who has little clue about what is happening in the real world. Labour will not win the election. They may claim ground in some marginal electorates and might, might, pinch a couple but it will do nothing to threaten the John Key lead National Government.
They too focus too much on non issues. Nothing of what they have released this year is going to make a sod of difference to middle New Zealander and the rising cost of living.
Mostly though I have zero confidence in him as a prime minister. But that is Labour's problem. Goff will go in to this election as leader, be wiped off the planet and dumped for someone else. He will then retire with his pension intact for the rest of his life. Who will then take up the mantle of chief opposition person post November 2011. That in itself is worth the price of admission.
National.
Will form the new goverment in the same way the Bush V Kerry election in the US. Lack of options. They will likely sell of government owned majority assets claiming a win in the election is an issue specific mandate. Which of course its not.
My biggest bug bear of this National term is the deliberate heavy handedness of some of its ministers. The Star Wars Empress Anne Tolley and the National Standards debacle. Take these or else approach sent me some warning signs early. When you introduce something and 80% of the nations schools cry foul over a short implementation period and basically having this thrust on them by hook or by statutory manager to me is reminiscent of the Helen Clark era of government. Take this or leave it, do this or else, more implied than stated, but thats how it always is.
Do not get me wrong. National standards, requiring minimum levels of literacy and numeracy are good things. But National standards could be like NZQA unit standards. Allow the individual school determine assessment criteria to the required level as long as it meets the expected outcomes. A longer lead in time to try and make sure you are not adding to the administrative burdens of the teachers and creating materials that would be effective and efficient for teachers to use, rather than complicating their already heavy workloads may have seen the reaction be a little more positive. But no...adapt or face statutory management. I do not like the approach.
Tolley also has done damage to the ECE sector. To me, taking funding away from a centre when 80% or more of their staff become qualified seems reverse logic. Surely the more qualified staff should be rewarded with more funding not less. A centre I was involved with lost a substantial amount of funding under this model because more than 80% of its staff were qualified at the time the new funding criteria came into force. Tolley said that raising fees was an individual business decision, not a government issue. Obviously denying that the government had a role to play in the business having to make the decision in the first place.
Don't even get me started on the Ministry of Social Development Minister Paula Bennett. I guess overall shes been ok as a first term minister with a huge portfolio. Personally I think it should be split like Telecom. You have Child Youth and Family which could be a portfolio on its own, and Work and Income, which is a whole separate portfolio. Who needs another report on how to combat child abuse in this country. DEAL WITH IT! Its not hard...but I think on this issue, we have to stop pussy footing around civil liberties. If we really are thinking about a child's right to quality of life the sometimes the hard decisions have to be made.
That is a whole other blog in and of itself.
The final opinion.
I'm going to call it early. National is going to win and win safe. The only question is who they will work with over the next three years. Phil Goff will stand down as leader on election night or be tossed as leader the next morning my betting is he doesn't see out the term. Between 10-12 of his list will be casualties of Labours poor ratings in the polls and the result. I guess taking a look at the 2002 National party result and there ya go, that will be Labour.
I wonder what the TAB odds would be on Shane Jones being leader, or David Cunliffe or even David Parker.
One issue that I will say with some certainty is that Labour, either sadly or fortunately is toast. There is no way outside of a snowball they will actually win this year. Part of that has to do with their front man. But it's only part. The rest is some of their assortment of shadow ministers. Some of them are quality, others are past their use by dates. But in all they do not add up to a winning combination and a government making party.
That's not to say that some of the decisions made by National haven't shaken my confidence. I think though that they have made some inroads into ideas that I think are reasonable, while others I think have been rushed and truly stank of a bully-boy tactic reminiscent of the 'I'm the boss of the sandpit' attitude.
What I will say outright is that like it or not, it is my belief that National will lead another group of parties into government this election. How I wish their plans did not include ACT as they seem to, but it is going to a second term for John Key and a National lead government. Failing some massive change in fortune for Phil Goff and Labour, and I would even suggest that a leadership change won't help that situation, Labour will not be winning this year's election and they will have a new leader.
ACT
Failing someone wins an electorate ACT is toast and good riddance to them. Don Brash has demonstrated to me many times he lacks any integrity or loyalty to those who support him especially with the unceremonious dumping of their latest list MP Hillary Calvert who supported him in rolling our friendly garden gnome Rodney Hide from the leadership, Mr Brash and the ACT party dumped her off the list. Now John Boscowen is leaving too. So not the show of support Mr Brash thought he was going to get.
Some of ACT's policies aren't overall too bad. Some quite extreme as are many of their views, but some of their policies, like the three strikes aren't too bad. Personally, I hope John Banks is thumped in Epson, I don't care by whom, but I just hope they lose Epson and they will lose all seats in parliament and there is one less idiot to contend with.
ACT though is now in the small party vote grab mode by its new leader and it seems it dosen't care who the votes come from. In relation to its standing on decriminalisation of marijuana I have to say that I am partial to a very controlled policy on medicinal use but I am severely opposed to an open legalisation of the substance, especially since we already have a significant problem with alcohol and other drugs which at this point are no where near a level of safe control.
Goodbye and goodnight.
Greens
The Greens will retain their seats in parliament through the list. Russell Norman and Metiria Turei will lead them but their own contributions to the effort won't overly result in a lot. They will continue to ask the same irrelevant questions and expecting the same unobtainable things that joe-average New Zealanders cannot afford.
It's hard enough at times buying a normally farmed chicken for $14.00 than buying an organically farmed one for $5+ or more. Getting a dozen battery eggs for $6 as opposed to 6 organic or non-cage eggs for the same price or more or cleaner air or water projects for millions of dollars that we would have to pay for out of our own pockets. These guys are safe and sound for what they are worth.
With their changes in the recent polls they will increase their number but the loss of the old guard of Keith Locke and Sue Kedgley does signal now that they are moving in a different direction. Lets see how they go.
The Maori Party.
They I think are pretty safe where they are. There may be a fight on in Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga but for the most part Turia, Sharpels and Flavell will be safe.
In this instance I think they have done ok. I turned my head sideways when suggestions like compulsory Maori language learning for school teachers and some other policy ideas came up but being new to the political power scene they have performed well. I'm not saying that because my aunty is Rahui Katene or that I like Mr Flavell, but I think overall, they have done well and will continue to work well with National.
As much as GST removal from fruit and veg might help joe-average Kiwi, I don't think its enough and I think opens a wider can of worms than most people realise and not just how its administered.
Mana.
A one man wonder and with any luck it will stay that way. I have moments when I like Hone and other times when I cannot stand him. He will likely retain Te Tai Tokerau and depending on his level of support may get one or two more seats but it will not impact on the political landscape in the house.
Solo Flyers
They aren't going to change. United Future and Progressives aren't going to be joined by additional MP's and they will continue to do what they do. Jim Anderton will be a Labour co-pilot and Peter Dunne and his hair-do will do what it does...fly in the wind.
Labour.
Probably on the surest path to destruction as was the Bill English lead National party in the 2002 election. Phil Goff is an uncharismatic leader who has little clue about what is happening in the real world. Labour will not win the election. They may claim ground in some marginal electorates and might, might, pinch a couple but it will do nothing to threaten the John Key lead National Government.
They too focus too much on non issues. Nothing of what they have released this year is going to make a sod of difference to middle New Zealander and the rising cost of living.
Mostly though I have zero confidence in him as a prime minister. But that is Labour's problem. Goff will go in to this election as leader, be wiped off the planet and dumped for someone else. He will then retire with his pension intact for the rest of his life. Who will then take up the mantle of chief opposition person post November 2011. That in itself is worth the price of admission.
National.
Will form the new goverment in the same way the Bush V Kerry election in the US. Lack of options. They will likely sell of government owned majority assets claiming a win in the election is an issue specific mandate. Which of course its not.
My biggest bug bear of this National term is the deliberate heavy handedness of some of its ministers. The Star Wars Empress Anne Tolley and the National Standards debacle. Take these or else approach sent me some warning signs early. When you introduce something and 80% of the nations schools cry foul over a short implementation period and basically having this thrust on them by hook or by statutory manager to me is reminiscent of the Helen Clark era of government. Take this or leave it, do this or else, more implied than stated, but thats how it always is.
Do not get me wrong. National standards, requiring minimum levels of literacy and numeracy are good things. But National standards could be like NZQA unit standards. Allow the individual school determine assessment criteria to the required level as long as it meets the expected outcomes. A longer lead in time to try and make sure you are not adding to the administrative burdens of the teachers and creating materials that would be effective and efficient for teachers to use, rather than complicating their already heavy workloads may have seen the reaction be a little more positive. But no...adapt or face statutory management. I do not like the approach.
Tolley also has done damage to the ECE sector. To me, taking funding away from a centre when 80% or more of their staff become qualified seems reverse logic. Surely the more qualified staff should be rewarded with more funding not less. A centre I was involved with lost a substantial amount of funding under this model because more than 80% of its staff were qualified at the time the new funding criteria came into force. Tolley said that raising fees was an individual business decision, not a government issue. Obviously denying that the government had a role to play in the business having to make the decision in the first place.
Don't even get me started on the Ministry of Social Development Minister Paula Bennett. I guess overall shes been ok as a first term minister with a huge portfolio. Personally I think it should be split like Telecom. You have Child Youth and Family which could be a portfolio on its own, and Work and Income, which is a whole separate portfolio. Who needs another report on how to combat child abuse in this country. DEAL WITH IT! Its not hard...but I think on this issue, we have to stop pussy footing around civil liberties. If we really are thinking about a child's right to quality of life the sometimes the hard decisions have to be made.
That is a whole other blog in and of itself.
The final opinion.
I'm going to call it early. National is going to win and win safe. The only question is who they will work with over the next three years. Phil Goff will stand down as leader on election night or be tossed as leader the next morning my betting is he doesn't see out the term. Between 10-12 of his list will be casualties of Labours poor ratings in the polls and the result. I guess taking a look at the 2002 National party result and there ya go, that will be Labour.
I wonder what the TAB odds would be on Shane Jones being leader, or David Cunliffe or even David Parker.
posted by Wiremu Bayliss at
8:54 pm
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